Ever since the 2006 elections that predicted that Carol Shea Porter didn't have a chance (and she beat incumbent Jeb Bradley handily) we've been a bit skeptical of polls. And now I find the polls even more dubious in their predictive quality. Our analysis of You Tube videos (looking at both popularity and rankings) has Ron Paul , John McCain and Barrack Obama way out in front. Hilary is distant 5th. The results in Facebook are even more revealing. There are some 500 groups supporting Obama, while Hilary only has a couple of hundred - -most of them virulently opposed. . What is amazing is the number of people who have joined groups like "I'll move to New Zealand if Hilary is elected."
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November 09, 2007
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Hello,
I would say if you look at the demographics of the typical voter and the demographics of typical online junkie there is a disparity now. As this generation gets older and more and more of the youth fall into more responsible voting patterns you'll see this become much representative of voting.
Although In Ron Pauls case his support is reflecting his offline support if you look at Straw Poll results. His national poll status is growing, but it's unrepresentative of his base when you look at those surveyed.
Basically, people who support Ron Paul are made of many group and many of these groups arn't included in these polls. They are in Straw Polls though :). Which is a good judge of which candidate has good voter turnout, and by this measure Paul is gonna win by a very large margin.
- Alex Merced
http://merced2012.ning.com
Posted by: Alex Merced | November 09, 2007 at 06:26 PM