Bringing a Moneyball revolution to the analysis of political polls, FiveThirtyEight blogger Nate Silver has once again predicted the presidential election with stunning accuracy.
In the run-up to the election, Obama supporters clung to Silver's re-election-leaning predictions like babies to their pacifiers. Meanwhile critics accused him of mixing bad data with good to cook his numbers.
His very sophisticated model averages poll results, weighting them by their recency, sample size, and accuracy. We name him Measurement Geek of the Year not for his specific outcomes, but for his innovation in research. Rather than just refine a traditional methodology, he invented a completely new one. --KDP
(Thanks to Phil Ebersole's blog for the illustration.)
Katie Delahaye Paine is Chairman, KDPaine & Partners, (a Salience Insight company), and Chief Marketing Officer of News Group International. KDP&P delivers custom research to measure brand image, public relationships, and engagement. Katie Paine is a dynamic and experienced speaker on public relations and social media measurement. Click here for the schedule of Katie’s upcoming speaking engagements. Katie and Beth Kanter are authors of the book “Measuring the Networked Nonprofit,” to be published this year by Wiley.
The Measurement Standard is a publication of KDPaine & Partners, a company that delivers custom research to measure brand image, public relationships, and engagement. Katie Paine, CEO of KDPaine & Partners, will be glad to talk with you about measurement for your organization.